The end of COVID continuing coverage requirements for Medicaid and the expiration of enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies after 2025 will affect both spending and sources of coverage, the Congressional Budget Office says.
The end of COVID continuing coverage requirements for Medicaid and the expiration of enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies after 2025 will affect both health spending and sources of coverage. The Congressional Budget Office in late May released its latest estimates for Americans under the age of 65.
By 2033, the uninsured rate is projected to have increased to 10.1%, which is still below 2019’s rate of about 12%, according to the CBO.
These are the 10 key takeaways from the report, according to Forbes:
Medicaid enrollment will decline significantly over the next two years. CBO expects Medicaid enrollments to fall to 75.9 million in 2023, 67.2 million in 2024 and 64.3 million in 2025.
Most people who lose Medicaid will sign up for their employer’s coverage. The most common dual enrollment situation is coverage in Medicaid and an employer plan. According to CBO projections, just over half of people who lose Medicaid (about 7.8 million people out of the 15.5 million people who lose Medicaid overall) will enroll in an employer plan.
There will be an increase in the number of people without health insurance, but most of them are eligible for subsidized coverage. Those who are removed from the program because they may not have returned renewal paperwork but remain Medicaid eligible are actually covered by Medicaid retroactive eligibility.
Obamacare spending this year will be $214 billion. Federal spending on Obamacares Medicaid expansion will be $123 billion and Obamacares premium subsidy spending will be $91 billion this fiscal year, according to CBO.
Obamacare spending will be $2.5 trillion over the next decade CBO estimates that federal spending on Medicaid expansion will be $1.45 trillion from 2024 to 2033, while spending on premium Obamacare benefits will be $1.05 trillion.
Obamacare is exacerbating annual federal deficits. The new estimates are a reminder that Obamacare is contributing significantly to annual federal deficits despite promises that the bill would be paid. The only two aspects of Obamacare that reduce federal deficits are legislative reductions in Medicare payments and its investment tax, which are nowhere near the amount Obamacare spends.
In writing, Obamacare is three times more expensive for taxpayers than employer coverage. Employer coverage premiums are not subject to federal income or payroll taxes, which results in a loss of revenue for the federal government. Overall, people migrating from Obamacare to employer coverage is a large net benefit to the federal budget.
Almost everyone who buys coverage in the exchange gets a subsidy. CBO estimates that 15.1 million people will receive coverage through an exchange in 2023. Of those, 14.1 million people or 93 percent will receive subsidies.
Signups for the Obamacare exchange will go up and then down. CBO expects overall Obamacare exchange enrollments to rise to 17.9 million people in 2025 (up from 15.2 million this year) and then decline to 12.8 million in 2027.
Stability of employer coverage. CBO predicts that between 57.1% and 58.2% of people under the age of 65 will enroll in an employer plan for each year between 2022 and 2033. The average over this period is 57. .8%.
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